The prediction was right. By late 2025, over 80% of engineering teams had adopted at least one AI coding tool. GitHub reported 77% of developers using Copilot. Cursor crossed 1 million users. Claude Code became the default CLI for senior engineers.
The prediction that was wrong: that adoption would equal productivity.
The Adoption Curve
The pattern repeated at every company:
Month 1-2: Excitement. Developers accept completions eagerly. Simple tasks feel faster. Internal Slack channels are full of "look what Copilot just did" screenshots.
Month 3-4: Plateau. The easy wins are captured. Complex tickets still take the same time. Developers stop noticing the speed-up because they have adjusted to the new baseline.